OUR CARS DON’T FLY, BUT VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY IS CERTAINLY GETTING MORE ADVANCED. WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR THE AUTOMOBILE?
The headline for my column seemed appropriate, given that at the time of writing we had just past October 21, 2015. That was the date that Marty McFly travelled to in the future, courtesy of a modified DeLorean, in the second installment of the Back to the Future movie franchise that came out in 1989.
While we are not yet driving flying cars, as the movie suggested, there have been huge and radical changes to the automobile over the course of the last 30 years. I believe we are on the cusp of even more significant change over the next five-10 years in the industry that will be even more transformational.
In my view, those changes are likely to occur with far greater speed than many of the changes that happened in the previous 30 years.
That’s because the automobile, especially in recent years, has in many ways transformed from a mechanical machine to an electronic one.
According to McKinsey & Company, a modern luxury vehicle has about 100 million lines of code in it, and up to 100 electronic control units (ECUs) that “talk” to each other over control area networks (CANs). These can process 25 gigabytes of data an hour, with the power of 20 personal computers.
The automobile has transformed from a mechanical machine to an electronic one.
To put this in perspective, the space shuttle’s primary flight software has about 400,000 lines of code, and the DNA of a computer mouse is about 120 million lines of code.
Why is this important? Because now that electronics are ubiquitous in the modern vehicle, they also become subject to Moore’s Law.
In 1965, Gordon Moore determined that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit essentially doubles every 18 months to two years — meaning that the performance and power of the technology double every couple of years, with prices either staying the same or declining.
We’ve all been witness to this through the evolution of our smartphones. Their average lifespan seems to be about 18 months, after which they are viewed as outdated antiques. Their replacements usually have longer battery life, faster performance, greater processing power and more functionality.
That said, it’s clear that marrying the electronic and mechanical engineering worlds in the modern automobile will not be without challenges.
Most OEMs have reduced the time to bring an automobile from concept to commercialization. Which once took four or five years not long ago can now be done in 24-30 months.
But once introduced, a model generation is expected to be manufactured with minor tweaks for a number of years to recoup investment and provide a profit.
In that context, you start to appreciate the challenges of the vehicle development and production cycle compared to that of the electronics industry. The two industries remain on largely different product development cycle times, and this is especially important for the electronic interfaces that the consumer sees and uses in the modern vehicle.
A simple but useful example is Bluetooth connectivity. Even the most basic new vehicle sold today will have Bluetooth available as an option — if not as standard equipment.
For some consumers, Bluetooth connectivity may be enough to induce them to purchase a new vehicle, even though there is nothing wrong with the vehicle they purchased two or three years ago.
But that vehicle does not have Bluetooth connectivity. Those consumers are simply tired of donning an earpiece or coping with a visor clip Bluetooth device to facilitate hands-free driving.
If you project that line of thinking into the future, how many consumers will want to be driving around in a three year-old vehicle that doesn’t allow them to seamlessly have access to all of the applications and functionality of their smartphone the minute they step into the car?
If there is any truth to what I am suggesting, this kind of “technology envy” may assist in boosting vehicle sales into the future at levels beyond what they otherwise would have been, as consumers look to embrace the latest and greatest technology in their vehicles.
Even the most basic new vehicle sold today will have Bluetooth available as an option — if not as standard equipment.
But there is a clear and fundamental difference in upgrading your $500 phone after 18 months, to replacing your $35,000 automobile — at least under current vehicle ownership structures.
Perhaps it’s not completely outside of the realm of possibility for manufacturers and their finance companies to work out an ownership scheme where the vehicle would be replaced by a new one over the life of a lease, as the electronic hardware and software are improved exponentially.
Aside from being on the cusp of an infotainment electronics integration into the modern vehicle, there’s also the lesser known advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS) that have been introduced into vehicles over the past 10-15 years to improve safety. These systems aid, warn or assist drivers, but traditionally have not been linked together in a comprehensive way.
Once again, the increased penetration of electronics in vehicles will do just that, along with increasing the cadence of the introduction of these systems into vehicles. These systems will continue to facilitate the automation of the dynamic driving task, moving the industry down the road to the so-called “driverless” car.
While studies have suggested more than 85 per cent of traffic accidents resulting in fatalities and serious injuries are caused by driver error, you can understand why there is an interest in taking the human driver out of the equation.
We may not have flying cars, but we are likely going to have driverless or fully automated cars. But I won’t speculate when that’s going to happen.
