Musings about a few interesting developments from 2016
Another year, another record broken in the Canadian car market — or so experts predict.
Most analysts agree that despite a few months of sales declines, Canada is still on track to beat last year’s record of 1.89 million vehicles sales.
Canadian new vehicle sales year-to-date as of September still represent a 3.2 per cent increase over 2015, according to DesRosiers Automotive Reports. Vehicle sales for the first nine months of 2016 sit at 1,507,975, compared to 1,461,132 sales during the same period last year.
Looking back reveals more than just record numbers. A handful of disruptors will shape the auto industry in the coming years, and some exciting 2016 advances played important roles in these emerging trends.
Take electric vehicle (EV) sales, which are forecasted to reach unprecedented levels by the end of the year.
The most recent report from EV research firm Fleetcarma shows Canadian car dealers sold 4,288 EVs during the first half of 2016, up an incredible 54 per cent over last year’s 2,790 first half sales.
These numbers are partly due to a renewed emphasis on incentive programs. Ontario more than doubled the rebates available for potential EV buyers in February, while Quebec offers free access to ferries and bridges in addition to their $8,000 EV rebate.
Out West, our own provincial government renewed funding for the Clean Energy Vehicle for BC (CEVforBC) point-of-purchase incentive program, which provides an up to $5,000 rebate on qualifying EVs and up to $6,000 off hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The initiative will be further enhanced as part of B.C.’s recently released Climate Leadership Plan.
Despite being recommended by the BC Climate Leadership team, a Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate was not introduced in B.C.
A balanced, common sense approach using incentives was seen as the best approach for the province. The BC Scrap-It Program, which has become a real poster child for scrappage programs in North America, is seen as a tremendous opportunity for the reduction of GHGs in British Columbia and potentially across Canada.
The coming year has even more in store, with the release of much-coveted models like the 2017 Chevrolet Bolt, which, at $42,795 CAD plus incentives is set to be the most affordable long range EV available in Canada, and the Tesla Model 3 sedan, which already has thousands of pre-orders across the country.
Autonomous driving is another hot trend that gained ground in 2016.
Level 2 semi-autonomous cars control aspects of steering, acceleration, and braking. Audi, BMW, Honda, Mercedes, Nissan and Volvo all introduced Level 2 models this year.
Level 4 vehicles, which are almost fully autonomous, may be on the road sooner than you think. Volvo, Ford, Tesla and others have all committed to unveiling autonomous cars by the early 2020s.
In 2017, Level 2 autonomy will continue to move past the luxury stage and become even more affordable. We may even see Level 4 concept and test cars!
An industry disruptor in its own right, car-sharing plays a large role in some manufacturers’ autonomous goals.
In August, Ford announced it would have autonomous vehicles by 2021, but that they’d be used specifically for ride-sharing. Then, in September, Uber became the first ride-sharing service in America to offer self-driving cars with a pilot project in Pittsburgh that uses modified Ford Fusions.
Car-sharing companies like Uber, Lyft, and Car2go have been steadily gaining popularity in Canada. It’s still unclear, however, to what extent the growth of ride-sharing will impact the auto industry — undoubtedly more will be revealed in the coming year. According to David Plouffe, Chief Advisor and Member of the Board at Uber, if every car was shared, we’d need only 10 per cent of the cars on the road today. Definitely something to think about!
From record sales, to autonomous advances, to the growing popularity of electric vehicles, 2016 has been an exciting auto year in more ways than one. I look forward to seeing where the next 12 months will take us.
