As a society, we’ve become reliant on technology to solve our problems. Whatever they are, there must be some technological fix for them, if not today, then tomorrow.
We can be forgiven for clinging to that conviction because, to a great extent, it has been true — and nowhere more so than in the auto industry.
Too many people dying in car crashes? Never mind addressing the drivers; just force technology improvements such as airbags and collapsible structures in cars to make the crashes more survivable.
Then add in more technologies to help avoid the crashes, including ABS and ESC, and keep building on those technologies with even more advanced ones such as automatic emergency braking and obstacle avoidance.
Soon, we’re promised, we’ll be all the way to autonomous cars incapable of crashing.
The same approach has been applied to reducing emissions from vehicles and it has been equally successful. Or has it?
Consumers need to be the target — not the vehicle companies — because they’re the ones who decide which vehicles they purchase — not the automakers
There’s no question that so-called “criteria emissions” from vehicle exhaust — carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides — have been reduced to virtually nothing since they were first regulated in 1970. And that success has been enabled by advances in technology.
But technology alone may not be enough to address the challenge of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from automobiles, which contribute to global climate change.
It’s not that there’s a dearth of technology advancement — quite the contrary.
Fuel consumption and GHG emissions from internal combustion engines are directly related to reducing fuel consumption results and a similar reduction in GHG emissions.
Regulations now demand automakers reduce the average fuel consumption of the vehicles they sell — and thus their GHG emissions — to about half their current level by 2025.
Automakers are making significant progress in that direction, primarily through combinations of vehicle weight and engine size reductions, improved aerodynamics and engine efficiency, and various levels of electrification.
But they may not be getting any closer to achieving that 2025 goal on a fleet average basis, which is how it is defined.
The problem is those technical advances are being undermined by human nature.
According to auto industry analyst Dennis DesRosiers, the average sales-weighted fuel efficiency shows no improvement nation-wide and in some provinces it is getting worse, not better. Why?
“Every time a vehicle company introduces a more efficient vehicle the consumer moves up to a bigger vehicle and/or a more powerful engine,” said DesRosiers. “Vehicle companies may be offering BEVs (battery-electric vehicles) and hybrids but consumers aren’t buying them.”
A record 1.9 million new vehicles were sold in Canada in 2015, almost 1.2 million which were light trucks — a classification that includes SUVs, of which sales reached new highs.
Among the declining population of passenger cars sold, sales of large luxury cars increased while those of the most fuel-efficient cars, including hybrids, decreased.
Lower gasoline prices than we’ve seen in eight years are exacerbating the situation. So is the fact that the number of vehicles in operation continues to increase — it was up 1.1 million in 2015 alone.
Improvements in vehicle quality and longevity play a major role in that increase. The average vehicle age in Canada in 2015 was 9.62 years, compared to 8.74 years in 2000.
As a result, there are now more than 10 million vehicles on Canadian roads that are more than 10 years old according to DesRosiers, “and most of them are outright polluters and gas guzzlers compared to modern vehicles,” he said.
“Indeed, the average fuel efficiency of a vehicle bought new today is about 50 per cent better than the average vehicle over 10 years old,” said DesRosiers.
All of this means the fuel-consumption improvements and GHG emissions reductions enabled by advances in technology are being offset by the type of vehicles consumers are choosing. That situation is being magnified by even more vehicles, and particularly more older vehicles, on the road.
So, if technology is not the solution, what is? It may be a change in focus by our regulators, said DesRosiers.
“Consumers need to be the target — not the vehicle companies — because they’re the ones who decide which vehicles they purchase — not the automakers.”
There are plenty of incentives already out there for the purchase of full-and partial-electric vehicles, which regulators seem to see as the automotive holy grail. But they’re not working.
DesRosiers suggests it may be time for a little stick along with the carrot — something like mandatory retirement age for vehicles, perhaps?
An idea that could be the proverbial win-win for both the environment
and new-vehicle sales.
