Will BEVs take over the automotive world? Or will hybrids better satisfy buyers?
Based on recent mass media coverage, much of it fuelled by the Tesla/Elon Musk hype machine, it seems a forgone conclusion that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are about to take over the market.
Governments, too, are backing that line of thinking, providing huge incentives for BEV purchases and significant investments in recharging infrastructure.
The one group that hasn’t yet bought into that belief is the one that’s most important: car buyers.
Is this focus on BEVs as the solutions for the environmental sins of the automobile really in the best interest of consumers? If so, they’re yet to be convinced.
They’ve voted with their chequebooks and, the claimed 300,000-plus $1,000-hand raisers for the Tesla Model 3 notwithstanding, they’ve said “no go” to the BEVs they’ve been offered so far.
According to the EV advocacy firm FleetCarma, there were only 6,933 plug-in vehicle sales in Canada in 2015, in a market just shy of 1.9 million.
That’s less than four-tenths of one per cent of the market. And that figure includes not only pure BEVs but also plug-in hybrids, which make up almost half that number!
According to the same source, there were just over 10,000 BEVs in the whole Canadian vehicle population at the end of 2015. That’s hardly a ringing endorsement by consumers.
Some might argue that the problem is a lack of BEVs available. But with at least 10 individual models to choose from, BEVs are there if people really want them.
And they’re not undesirable vehicles, most being variants of other models that satisfy buyers well in conventional powertrain form. There are plenty more on the way as well, as every major automaker, of regulatory necessity, has one or more BEVs in the pipeline — if not already on the market.
But in the short and medium-term, the prospects for BEV sales are far from the dominant force many proponents predict. According to a forecast released recently by automotive research and development firm FEV, battery electric vehicles will make up just six per cent of sales in North America by 2025.
That forecast is particularly credible because the company is a recognized leader in the design and development of all forms of vehicle powertrains, conventional and alternative included. Another study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance suggests a similar level of BEV penetration.
So, if those forecasts are to be believed, what’s the problem? Why aren’t BEVs ready to take over the automotive world?
The problems are threefold and they are well known: cost, driving range and recharge time. If, through some technical miracle, BEVs can provide what customers have come to expect in conventional vehicles in all three respects, they’ll undoubtedly be the ultimate victors.
But even the vaunted Tesla Model 3, which is still little more than an ethereal dream, won’t come close to satisfying those criteria. In the meantime, the odds remain stacked against BEVs for most customers.
Which is not to say they’re stacked against greater electrification. Quite the opposite. But it will evolve more naturally in the form of hybrids, which more than offset customer concerns over range and refuel/recharge time and come closer to conventional vehicles in cost as well.
In fact, according to the FEV forecast, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) will account for almost one in three passenger vehicle sales (32 per cent) by 2025.
Beyond their range and refuel/recharge time advantages, hybrids also stand to benefit on the cost front from any progress made by BEVs, for they share much of the same componentry. Most, if not all, advancements made for BEVs will likely be applicable to HEVs as well.
In addition, major developments continue to be made on the engine side of the hybrid equation, resulting in unprecedented levels of efficiency. And there is plenty of room for further improvements to come.
It’s possible that smaller-still engines, potentially motorcycle-based, rotary or even gas-turbine, will be used in serial hybrid form, solely to drive generators that recharge batteries and provide power directly to the wheels. Running in a narrow speed and load range, they could be optimized to achieve significantly greater levels of fuel efficiency.
Of course, there’s also the option of adding plug-in capability to HEVs, which is already a common practice that combines the best characteristics of BEVs and conventional hybrids.
The bottom line is for now and the immediate future, hybrids are better able than BEVs to meet the expectations of most customers.
