Those that know me well sometimes accuse me of being more interested in the future than the present. It’s a fair observation, and when it comes to the auto industry, I do sometimes like to let my mind leap forward and picture what the industry might look like in five, ten or even 20 years looking back at today.
That’s why I just couldn’t resist reading an article that was recommended by someone I respect in my LinkedIn feed: “73 mind-blowing implications of a driverless future.” I’m glad I did.
The author, Geoff Nesnow, (geoffnesnow.com) let his own imagination run wild in a world where autonomous cars truly take over, but grounded by a good understanding of how an interconnected world often leads to unforeseen consequences.
His article imagines how one big shift in technology and mobility could dramatically impact many other parts of our economy and our world — including dealerships. It’s worth a read.
The implications, if things do indeed play themselves out as he imagines, are staggering, stunning, and unexpected.
His article imagines how one big shift in technology and mobility could dramatically impact many other parts of our economy and our world — including dealerships.
As you might expect, he imagines winners and losers in this new future, but there are also lots of new opportunities. Here are just a few of his predictions:
- People won’t own their own cars.
- Software/technology companies will own more of the world’s economy as companies like Uber, Google and Amazon turn transportation into a pay-as-you-go service. They, and others, will also own vehicle design and manufacturing.
- Vehicles will mostly swap batteries rather than serve as the host of battery charging. Batteries will be charged in distributed and highly optimized centers — likely owned by the same company as the vehicles or another national vendor.
- Driver’s licenses will slowly go away as will the Department of Motor Vehicles in most states. Traffic policing will become redundant.
- The auto insurance industry as we know it will go away.
- There will be no more local mechanics, car dealers, consumer car washes, auto parts stores or gas stations. The politics will get ugly as lobbyists for the auto and oil industries unsuccessfully try to stop the driverless car.
- Roads will wear out much more slowly with fewer vehicle miles, lighter vehicles (with less safety requirements).
- Exhilaration and emotion will almost entirely leave transportation. Speed will be measured by times between end points, not acceleration, handling or top speed.
- There will be few excuses for being late. People will know when they leave, when they’ll get where they’re going.
- There will be no more DUI/OUI offenses. Restaurants and bars will sell more alcohol. Significantly less people will be injured or killed on roads.
- Hacking of vehicles will be a serious issue.
- Innovators will come along with many amazing uses for driveways and garages that no longer contain cars.
- Companies like Google and Facebook will add to their databases everything about customer movements and locations. Autonomous vehicle systems will know where you’re going in real-time (and with whom).
Perhaps the most interesting prediction of all is this one: “Fortunes will be made as these changes happen.”
