It should come as no surprise to industry watchers that new-vehicle sales declined in January 2019. Sales of 108,774 vehicles were down 7.3% from the same month a year ago, continuing a trend of diminishing sales that is now 11 months long.
But there are some mixed messages in those figures. Last January’s sales were at a record high, following two months of decline, so at the very least they represent a very high comparable. In that context, this year’s decline may not be as dramatic as the percentage figure suggests.
In fact, it was the fourth highest result for any January on record, closely in line with 2016 figures and behind only 2018, 2017, and 2002 respectively, according to Dennis DesRosiers of DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC).
There’s also the matter of SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate), which fell just short of 2.0-million for January 2019, according to DAC’s figures. While that’s not quite in record territory, it’s better than four of the past 12 months and on a par with or higher than all recent January, except for 2018.
“The sky is not falling!” concluded David Adams, president of Global Automakers of Canada (GAC), adding that “January’s sales were still above the average for the last five years of sales for January.”
The flip side of that positive interpretation is that 16 of the 26 automakers/brands reporting experienced year-over-year sales declines and for 12 of those, they were double-digit percentages.
Particularly hard hit were passenger-car sales, which fell by 13.7 % to just 24.9% of the market. And, even though they accounted for more than three of every four vehicles sold, sales of trucks, vans and utility vehicles dropped by 4.9% as well.
Add into that chaotic mix uncertainties about the role of seasonal fleet sales in January’s figures – traditionally a confounding factor – plus the effect of abnormally severe winter weather across much of Canada, and there’s little that can be gleaned from those results in terms of a forecast for the rest of the year.
“As always, the high volume spring selling season will prove key in determining the overall market outlook in 2019,” observed Dennis DesRosiers.
Detroit Three one-two-three
Continuing its role as the 2018 market leader, Ford ranked number-one in sales for January with 16,154 vehicles sold – a decline of just 1.9 % in a market down much more. As a result, the Blue Oval’s market share grew by 0.9% from a year ago, to 14.9%, just a tenth shy of its full-2018 performance.
General Motors sales of 14,300 units were down by 14.8%, cutting market share by 1.2% to 13.1% and barely outpacing FCA for second place.
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) traditionally starts the year strongly and it did so again, to the extent that it surpassed Toyota to rank third for the first time in six months. But its 14,191 sales were down 20.1% from a year ago, costing 2.1% in market share, which fell to 13.0%.
After five months as the third-best seller, Toyota had to settle for its traditional fourth-place ranking in January. But with 12,778 vehicles sold, it was the only one of the top four to increase its sales, which it did by an impressive 14.4%! That increase bumped Toyota’s market share by 2.2% – the biggest gain in the industry – to 11.7%.
Korean brands make gains
Fifth place, as has become the norm, went to Honda, with 9,886 vehicles sold. That figure was down by 17.7% from a one-time high a year ago, but January’s market share of 9.1% is still a couple-tenths ahead of its full-2018 total.
Sometime-challenger Nissan’s 7,294 sales were down as well, by 9.0%, cutting market share by a tenth to 6.7%.
Hyundai remained in seventh place, despite a healthy 22.4% gain to 6,366 sales for the month. That increase improved market share by 1.5% to 5.9%, in spite of a 7.4% sales decline, to 4,008 units, Volkswagen claimed eighth place and maintained a steady market share of 3.7%.
Mazda, too suffered a sales decline, down 15.2% to 3,745 units, dropping it ninth in the rankings with a 3.4% market share, down 0.4% from a year ago.
Kia ranked tenth for the month but was one of only three automakers in the top ten, along with Toyota and Hyundai, to make gains from 2018. Sales of 3,458 units were up by 9.1%, bumping market share by 0.5% to 3.3%.
Subaru, in 11th place, continued to outpace the market, with a sales decline of just 2.9% to 3,143 vehicles, adding 0.2% of share to 2.9%.
Mercedes-Benz continued its 12th-place overall ranking, despite a 19.0% decline to 2,887 units. That loss cut its market share by 0.3% from last January, to 2.7%. but Mercedes remained well ahead of BMW and Audi respectively for sales leadership among premium brands.
Winners and losers
On a percentage basis, the biggest winners in January were Genesis (+70.0%), Hyundai (+22.4%), Volvo (+20.3%), Mitsubishi (+15.9%) and Toyota (+14.4%).
The biggest losers, in percentage terms, were Maserati (-42.0%), Jaguar (-26.4%), FCA (-20.1%), Mercedes-Benz (-19.0%) and Infiniti (-17.8%).
