Electric vehicles are reborn and this time they could be here to stay
One hundred years ago, the first electric starter was introduced on the 1912 Cadillac. Ironically, its introduction sounded the death knell for the electric vehicle (EV) of the day.
Before then, EVs were viable alternatives to the noisy, smoky gasoline-powered horseless carriages. In 1900, 38 per cent of vehicles in the U.S. were electric and only 22 per cent were gasoline powered. (The other 40 per cent were driven by steam). Even industry heavyweight, Henry Ford at one point seriously considered the use of an electric powerplant in an alternative to the Model T. While EVs were limited in range, they were quiet and they had the big advantage that they didn’t have to be hand-cranked to start. Until the electric starter took away that advantage. And the rest, as they say, is history.
By 1920, EVs were all but gone from the market. A century further on, they are once again making their presence known. And unlike the numerous half-hearted attempts to resurrect them in the interim, this time they’re getting some serious traction. Various industry forecasters suggest that, by 2020, from 15-to-20 per cent of all new vehicles sold worldwide could be electrically driven. The Chinese government predicts that five million electric vehicles will be on their roads alone by 2020. And that’s just the beginning. Some forecasters believe that by 2050 EVs will dominate the market as comprehensively as gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles do now.
Among the biggest industry boosters of vehicle electrification is Henry Ford’s great-grandson, Bill Ford, now the executive chairman of the Ford Mortor Company. In a Fortune magazine article in May 2011, he predicted that, “about 25 per cent of Ford’s fleet will be electrified by 2020.”
He’s not alone in his enthusiasm for electrics. Virtually every major automaker in the world has one or more electrification programs in place – most of them, like Ford, are pursuing several directions at once. (See story: The EV product pipeline on p.30) “I’m not sure which electric technology – hybrids, plug-in hybrids, or pure electrics – will win,” he says in his Fortune article, “so Ford is hedging its bets by investing heavily in all these technologies.”
Driving forces
There are two major forces driving the dramatic transformation to electric vehicles: oil dependency and climate change. The importance of both in today’s geopolitical context lends credence to the belief that the electrification movement is real and not just a public relations exercise.
As we go forward, the complexity and cost of extracting oil to maintain or increase the rate of supply we’ve become used to can only increase.
Throw in the uncertainty of supply based on political volatility in some of the major production areas and there is no guarantee that we can count on the steady availability of enough oil to maintain our current habit at anything close to a stable and affordable price.
As for climate change, whether or not one believes in its veracity (and the consensus among the scientific community is that it is real), most of the world’s governments have taken actions to help limit its further progress. Specifically, they’re acting to curb emissions of gases believed to contribute to the phenomenon, in particular carbon dioxide (CO2). And vehicles are a significant source of CO2.
Oil pressure rising
Whichever of those forces is more important doesn’t really matter. The solution to both problems is to reduce our use of oil.
Here in North America, those actions take the form of ever-tightening fuel consumption standards. In both Canada and the U.S. fleet-average fuel consumption must be reduced to 6.9 L/100 km (34.1 mpg (US)) by the 2016 model year. And further to 4.3 L/100 km (54.5 mpg (US)) by 2025. A tall order indeed, given that less than a handful of vehicles currently available in Canada can satisfy the 2025 mandate.
Electrification an alternative
Given that those fuel-consumption standards are fleet-wide averages, it stands to reason that some very high-volume vehicles will have to achieve significantly better results to offset the sales of those vehicles that ― while they tend to be highly popular ― have no realistic hope of ever meeting them.
That’s where EVs come in. Or more precisely, “electrically-driven” vehicles. That description includes not only pure battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) but also hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) and even fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), which may be available in small numbers by that time.
In broad terms, electrically-driven vehicles have one or more electric motors that, directly or indirectly, provide power to the vehicle’s wheels, either alone or in conjunction with some other type of powerplant such as a gasoline or diesel engine.
In previous issues of this magazine, we’ve discussed the various types of hybrids and electric vehicles – conventional (like the Honda Insight and Toyota Prius), micro-hybrid (like the Buick e-Assist), plug-in (like the forthcoming Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid), range-extended EVs (like the Chevrolet Volt) and BEVs (like the Nissan Leaf). So we won’t reprise those details here.
They all help to reduce, if not eliminate, fuel consumption by the vehicle itself and that’s their biggest selling point, as well as the core of their attractiveness to auto manufacturers.
But their increased role in the marketplace will bring with them new challenges – especially for dealers.
Challenges for dealers
Perhaps the most obvious challenge is that of the technology itself. For those already dealing with hybrid sales and service, additional adjustments for the introduction of plug-in variants or BEVs will be incremental.
For those just introducing hybrids or jumping right in with plug-ins it will be a more rapid transition. There’s all the training that is required, for both your service and sales forces. Plus the specialized tools and equipment necessary to work on these vehicles.
All charged up
In the case of plug-ins, either hybrids or BEVs, you’ll probably also have to install specialized charging equipment, which may incur significant costs. All the plug-ins now available can be fully recharged from a regular 120-volt household receptacle. But, it can be a slow process – anywhere from 8 to 20 hours, depending on the battery type and capacity.
Specialized ‘Level 2’ chargers can cut that time to half or less. They require the installation of specialized 240-volt equipment, as do even more costly “fast chargers,” which typically require 480-500-volt circuitry.
Then there’s the question of how to sell the vehicles in the numbers necessary to positively impact the fleet-wide fuel-consumption averages. There will be substantial pressure from the OEMs to do just that for there are significant penalties for failing to meet the standards.
Consumers say in surveys that they’re open to the idea of EVs, but those open minds tend to become closed pocketbooks with the substantial up-front cost premiums of electric drive.
That may be the biggest challenge of all.
