A recent forecast from Cox Automotive indicates that U.S. new-vehicles sales in December could reach 1.10 million units—down 32% from the same period last year.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for December is expected to finish near 11.4 million, which is down 30% from the 16.3 million sales pace in 2020. However, full-year 2021 new vehicle sales will finish near 14.9 million units—up approximately 2.5% from 14.5 million in 2020, according to the company’s news release.
“While sales in the first half of 2021 were relatively strong, the industry ran out of vehicles, and sales stalled in the second half,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “Total sales in the second-half of 2021 were the slowest in a decade. Demand is healthy, but supply and production disruptions kept the industry in check. You can’t sell what you don’t have.”
The company said that typically, based on Cox Automotive’s vAuto Available Inventory data, new vehicle inventory across the U.S. would be close to 3.5 million units, which in turn would offer consumers more choice and competitive pricing. That is not so much the case now. Since August, inventory is holding steady at approximately 1 million units; prices are rising and choice is limited.
Auto sales in the first half of the year reached 8.35 million units, “a strong pace that left the industry unable to refill the pipeline,” said Cox Automotive in its news release. However, sales in the second half of 2021 are expected to finish closer to 6.59 million units.
“Heading into 2022, we believe the supply situation will improve but it will take time to restock the shelves at dealerships,” said Chesbrough. “We expect modest gains in new-vehicle sales in the first quarter, and by the second half of the year a much more robust market should emerge.”
