First generation models haven’t been as popular as we might have expected
According to a recent study conducted by Prime Research International, a global automotive research firm, worldwide interest in electric vehicles (EVs) is already on the wane.
“Reporting on electric vehicles… has decreased for the first time in recent years, and our expert panel of top global journalists has voiced increasingly negative views,” said Dr. Rainer Mathes, president of Prime Research. The study was based on survey responses from 60 World Car Award (WCA) jurors from 25 countries, as well as from Prime’s own analyses of global media reportage. “There is not only less, but also more critical reporting than ever before,” Mathes added.
That same trend has been reflected in electric vehicle production and sales. Several fledgling EV manufacturers have succumbed before even getting a product to market. And others aren’t far behind. Ditto for a range of potential EV battery manufacturers — in spite of substantial financial subsidies poured into them by various levels of government.
I HAD AN ELECTRIC DREAM
In North America, the Nissan LEAF has been the only EV to sell in respectable numbers so far, although even though it has fallen far short of mainstream volumes. U.S. President Barack Obama’s much-publicized goal of putting one million electric vehicles on American roads by 2015 is beginning to seem like a hallucinogenic dream.
So is it time to admit that the electric vision was flawed and give up on the whole idea? The short answer to that question is, “No.” The longer answer is more complicated.
Perhaps the place to start, in finding that answer, is with a look at what’s keeping people from buying EVs. It’s not that they’re unpleasant cars. In particular, the Nissan LEAF and the just-released Ford Focus EV are in many ways superior to their conventionally-powered competitors. But they do have some disadvantages. Specifically: higher initial cost, limited range, and long recharge times, as well as a paucity of public recharging stations — any one of which is a potential deal-breaker.
Currently, EVs cost from $5,000 to $10,000 more than their conventional counterparts; recharging times are typically several hours at best — even with special 240-volt chargers; and range between recharges is typically 160 km or less — sometimes a lot less. As for commercial recharging stations, in Canada they’re almost non-existent. Add to those issues many people’s reluctance to try what they may see as yet-unproven technology and it’s not surprising that EVs have failed to take the market by storm. But that doesn’t mean it will stay that way forever. Constant progress is being made on all four of those primary fronts — three of which are governed largely by battery technology. And the fourth is directly related.
New types of batteries are in continuous development by academics, research institutions, electric utilities, automakers and other commercial enterprises, all over the world, including Canada. Hydro Quebec is a major player in the field, with a stated goal of developing a battery that can be recharged in just five minutes — about the time it takes to refuel a conventional car. With all that work going on, as is the case with a cure for cancer, it seems only a matter of time until one or more breakthroughs will occur. But it hasn’t happened yet — at least not in a form that’s ready to be commercialized.
Still, there is incremental progress. Tesla, which continues to define the cutting edge of EV technology, claims a range of 480 km for its top-line (85 kWh) Model S luxury sedan. But that range (plus added performance) comes at a cost premium of (US) $20,000 over the base (40kWh) Model S, which has a still-impressive advertised range of 257 km.
There may be an alternative to the battery, as well, at least in part. Supercapacitors, which can be charged very quickly, such as in a regenerative braking event, and discharged just as quickly, may be used to supplement battery power, thus enabling smaller, lighter and less-expensive battery packs.
They’re already being used as auxiliary power sources in production vehicles by Mazda and Lamborghini and they’re at the core of the hybrid-drive unit in Toyota’s TS030 Hybrid race cars, which have been competing against Audi’s dominant Le Mans racers. There is even some talk of supercaps ultimately replacing batteries altogether in electric vehicles.
In the meantime, almost every advance being made on the EV front brings parallel progress on hybrids, which really are becoming more popular among consumers. So, one way or another, you can count on the fact that vehicles will continue to become more electrified.
