BUT AUTOMAKERS WILL GET SOME HELP IN THE FORM OF MORE STRINGENT GASOLINE STANDARDS
A constant the auto industry has needed to deal with since the 1970s is ever-more-stringent emissions-control regulations. With all the emphasis on fuel economy over the past few years however, one might conclude that we’ve reached a point of stasis in that decades-long effort.
It would be a reasonable conclusion, given that we’ve achieved reductions of greater than 99-per cent in the so-called criteria emissions from vehicles — carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOX) and hydrocarbons, also called non-methane organic gases (NMOGs). And that we have long since passed the point of diminishing returns with respect to the cost-effectiveness of those ever-tightening standards. But, while it would be a reasonable conclusion, it would also be wrong.
NEW TIER 3 EMISSIONS STANDARDS
While there was a brief period of stability, now that fuel-consumption standards have been substantially defined through model year 2025, regulators have turned their attention back to exhaust emissions.
Specifically, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) plans to tighten the traditional vehicle emissions standards even further over the period 2017-2025 — elevating the current “Tier 2” regulations to a new “Tier 3” level. It will do so, even though North American vehicle emissions regs are already the toughest in the world (apart for some even more stringent requirements established by the State of California).
According to EPA estimates, meeting the proposed new standards will add an average of about $130 (US) to the (production) cost of a new vehicle by 2025. But regulators’ cost estimates have typically been on the light side of what consumers ultimately have to pay for when it comes to new safety and emissions technologies.
In case you’re wondering why it matters what the Americans are doing, it’s because the Canadian government is committed to harmonized standards between the two countries for such regulations, so what applies there will apply here as well.
TIGHTER CONTROLS ON GASOLINE
Fortunately, from the automakers’ perspective, they’ll get some help in meeting these tougher new regulations, in the form of new controls on the amount of sulphur allowed in gasoline.
Sulphur in gasoline, and subsequently in an engine’s exhaust gases, has the effect of poisoning catalytic converters and diminishing the efficiency of other emissions-control devices and systems, particularly as they age.
So reducing sulphur levels will make the vehicle engineers’ challenge in meeting the new targets somewhat easier — particularly given that they must certify some aspects of a vehicle’s emission performance not just when it is new but for as much as 193,000 km of use.
For that reason, rather than opposing the tighter regulations as they’ve done in the past, the automakers are generally supportive of the EPA’s proposed changes. In fact, they’ve been asking for them for several years.
Specifically, the new fuel standards will reduce gasoline sulphur levels by more than 60 per cent — from 30 parts per million (ppm) to 10 ppm in 2017. The EPA reduced the allowable sulphur level from 300 to 30 ppm in 1999 and Canada followed suit. The allowable level is already at 10 ppm or lower in California, the European Union, Japan and South Korea.
The lower sulphur levels are also considered necessary to accommodate the hardware required to meet new 2017-2025 greenhouse gas and fuel economy standards. An added benefit is that reducing sulphur levels in gasoline will have a positive effect on the emissions of all gasoline vehicles in use, not just new ones.
There’s also the political and very practical benefit of harmonizing the federal requirements with those already established by California for 2017 and beyond, thus letting manufacturers build and sell the same vehicles in all 50 states and Canada.
According to the EPA, its proposal will prevent up to 2,400 premature deaths per year, as well as 23,000 cases of respiratory ailments in children, in the U.S.
Not surprisingly, the petroleum industry is less enthusiastic about the proposed changes. Citing a “tsunami” of regulations that could put upward pressure on gasoline prices, the American Petroleum Institute, said: “The proposed Tier 3 fuel regulations could raise refiners’ costs, provide little or no environmental benefit, and actually increase carbon emissions.” The API is a (U.S.) national trade association that represents over 500 members of America’s oil and natural gas industries.
The API predicted a gasoline cost increase in the range of 2 to 7 cents/litre, depending on final details of the new standards.
At this stage the EPA proposal is just that. It still has to go through a public comment stage before actual rulemaking. But chances are, there won’t be a lot of changes when the new regulations take effect in 2017.
