Electric vehicle markets continue to grow even as EV makers face continued challenges along the way, according to a new report from IDTechEx.
In its “Electric Cars 2023-2043” report, IDTechEx said the United States is enjoying greater support for electrification since the Biden administration came to power, which introduced a 50% by 2030 EV new sales target in 2021.
The company said that, volumetrically, the administration’s target is the largest globally for an individual country, and that it would represent 7 to 8 million annual sales when considering today’s figures. New emissions standards and plans to modernize the EV federal tax credit, among other things, are also helping to move the U.S. forward in this area.
“IDTechEx forecasts for the U.S. market have greatly increased since 2019 (today’s forecast is approximately 80% greater by 2035), reflecting some of these policy changes,” they said.
The main difficulty, they add, is ensuring battery supply.
On the European front, the full implementation of the emissions standards of 95g CO2 per km (WLTP) within the EU underpins current EV sales. IDTechEx said annual sales have more than quadrupled to 2.2 million in 2021, since 2019, and they predict 3 million sales for 2022.
In June, the EU increased its targets to 55% for 2035 (up from 50%), to help reduce carbon emissions for vans and cars, and is planning a combustion engine ban for new cars by 2035.
As for China, IDTechEx said the country’s current policy aims for 20% of the market to be “new energy vehicles” by 2025 (approximately 4 million vehicles). In 2021, they sold 3.3 million units.
“As China’s EV purchase subsidy has gradually stepped down, its dual-credit system—where fuel efficiency credits (CAFC) and EV credits (NEV) are accumulated to avoid penalties and can be traded—has come to the forefront,” said IDTechEx. “Over time, credits are more difficult to obtain whilst more are required. The trade prices of credits are also determined by the market and have risen since 2018, often with volatility.”
Still, China’s policy remains a strong driver for EV uptake in the country and has significantly boosted the market.
“China remains the largest regional electric car market in IDTechEx forecasts over the next 20 years,” the company said.
Global battery electric and hybrid plug-in hybrid car sales (millions). Source: IDTechEx – “Electric Cars 2023-2043”
