Last year’s decision by American automakers to officially report sales only quarterly, rather than monthly, has now become epidemic. Effective January 2020, all the major European automakers have adopted the same practice as well.
DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC) has established its own methods for estimating monthly sales in Canada and, with the agreement of the appropriate trade associations, will continue to publish estimates each month and actual figures each quarter. Those numbers will continue to be the basis for Canadian auto dealer’s monthly sales reports.
On that basis, January’s estimate of 109,616 new vehicles sold suggests some welcome stability in the Canadian market. That figure is up 0.8% from last January’s total and is marginally above the average for the past five years (by 0.6%), which makes it the third-best January result ever.
In addition, the SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate) for the month was about 1.99-million, according to DAC’s figures, which is very much in-line with the same month for two of the past three years, behind only January 2018’s record pace.
While one month does not a trend make, it is worth noting that Q4 2019 sales were down just 1.36%, compared to 3.56% for the full year. In fact, full second-half sales in 2019 were down just 1.44% compared to 5.46% for the first half — all suggesting that the rate of sales decline is at least slowing, if not yet reversing.
That possibility could, of course be dramatically affected by external factors such as the impact of the coronavirus on global automotive production. What is certain is that the balance of 2020 promises continued tension in the marketplace.
Light truck share continues to grow
What is also certain is that the light truck share of the market, which encompasses utility vehicles along with vans and pickups, continues to grow. It accounted for 79.5% of all new-vehicle sales in January, compared to 75.1% last January and 74.7% for the full 2019 year. Traditional passenger cars claimed only 20.5% of the market. They accounted for 45% just 10 years ago!
GM surges but Ford in front
The new decade kicked off with a familiar order in the sales rankings. Ford’s sales were up just 0.1%, to 16,167 units, but that was enough to maintain first place, although it cost the Blue Oval 0.2% in market share from a year ago, down to 14.7%.
Second-place General Motors fared best of the Detroit Three in terms of improvement with a 7.6% gain to 15,384 vehicles sold, hiking its market share by 0.9% to 14.0% — the greatest increase of any manufacturer on the month.
FCA’s 14,523 sales were up 2.3% from a year ago, securing third place and bumping market share by 0.2% to 13.2%.
After challenging and surpassing FCA for several months in 2019, Toyota was well back in fourth in January with 12,034 sales, down 5.8% from a very strong January in 2019. As a result, Toyota’s share fell by 0.7% from a year ago, to 11.0%, although that figure was just 0.1% behind its full-year figure.
Fifth-place Honda continued its recent sales downturn with a 9.9% decline from a year ago to 8,912 units in January, cutting market share by 1.0% to 8.1% — the greatest share drop in the industry.
Hyundai and Kia continue to gain
Hyundai sustained its upward trend in January with a 12.6% sales increase, to 7,171 vehicles sold, advancing market share by 0.6% to 6.5% — the second-best share gain in the industry, behind only GM.
Nissan, which ranked sixth a year ago, is now well back in seventh with 6,715 January sales, a 7.9% decline from a year ago. That drop cost Nissan 0.6% in market share, the second-greatest loss in the industry, leaving it with 6.1% market share.
What has been a consistently tight battle for eighth fell in Volkswagen’s favour in January, with the German brand’s 4,150 sales up 3.5% from a year ago. That increase bumped VW’s market share by 0.1% to 3.8%.
In spite of a 14.0% January increase — the greatest of any mainstream brand — Kia’s 4,045 sales relegated it to ninth on the month, while increasing its market share by 0.4% to 3.7%.
Mazda’s 3,755 January sales, while up 0.3% from the same month last year, dropped it behind its rivals to 10th place, although its market share remained steady at 3.4%.
Subaru continued to make sales gains in 11th place with 3,322 units sold — up 5.7% from last January, gaining 0.1% of market share to 3.0% in the process.
Mercedes-Benz once again took control of the premium-brand market, ahead of Audi and BMW in that order, ranking 12th overall with 2,990 January sales. That 3.6% sales increase maintained M-B’s market share at 2.7%.
Winners and Losers
On a percentage basis, the greatest gainers in January were Genesis (+37.3%), Audi (+13.5%), Kia (+14.0%), Lexus (+12.8%) and Hyundai (+12.6%).
The biggest losers for the month, in percentage terms, were Smart (-100.0%), Maserati (-51.0%), Jaguar (-43.2%), Acura (-18.0%) and Infiniti (-12.9%).
It should be noted that the total market sales figures reported here, as well as monthly figures for Audi, BMW, FCA, Ford, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Mini, Porsche and Volkswagen, are now estimated by DAC and will be reconciled quarterly and annually, given that those automakers now report actual sales only on a quarterly basis. These estimated monthly results are reconciled quarterly by DAC to reflect actual sales when those companies report officially.
