The nascent hope of some stability returning to the Canadian auto market, based on the January and February results, was overwhelmed by COVID-19’s arrival in Canada in March and the unprecedented consequences that followed in its wake.
With much of Canada’s economy virtually shutting down in the second half of the month, March new-vehicle sales were down about 48% from the same month a year ago, as estimated by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC). As a result, actual first-quarter (Q1) sales of 329,108 units declined by 20.0% from the same period in 2019.
Even more dramatic, the SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate) for March was down to 1.02-million units, according to DAC — a full million units below the figure for the prior month.
With all the myriad uncertainties associated with this pandemic and its spread, about the only thing that seems certain is that the situation is bad and it will get worse before it gets better.
After modelling several possible scenarios, Dennis DesRosiers of DAC foresees a “baseline” decline of 25-30% for new-vehicle sales in 2020. A “more severe” scenario could see “a precipitous fall in excess of 60% for the year,” he said.
“While most economic models show a stabilization in key variables by Q3, our outlook indicates the recovery being largely delayed in automotive until 2021,” said DesRosiers.
Cars, luxury brands hardest hit
What didn’t change with the arrival of the pandemic was the public’s preference for light trucks (pickups, vans and SUVs) over conventional passenger cars. Through Q1, they bought 260,747 light trucks — a decline of 14.7% from Q1 2019. But passenger car sales of 68,361 units in the same period were down 35.3% from a year ago. That disparity left cars with just 20.8% of the market, compared to 79.2% for trucks and their ilk — a 4.9% shift from a year ago.
The impact of the virus hit luxury brands especially hard. All but three — Land Rover (-11.1%), Lexus (-13.1%) and Genesis (-17.8%) — suffered percentage declines greater than the market average (-20%), while all the mass-market brands except Honda (-31.2%) and Nissan (-36.4%) beat that average.
Least-worst among the mainstream brands, in terms of percentage decline, was Subaru (-12.7%), followed closely by General Motors (-12.8%), then Ford (-13.8%), Hyundai (-15.0%) and Kia (-15.2%).
Hardest-hit of all, on a percentage basis, were Maserati (-57.4%), Infiniti (-50.3%), Porsche (-42.1%) and Mini (-36.6%).
Rankings stay familiar but shares shuffle
While all brands suffered sales declines for Q1, their rankings followed traditional norms, although several experienced significant market share changes, which can be particularly important in a diminished market.
Ford maintained its sales leadership for the period with 53,279 sales (-13.8%), claiming 16.3% of the market up 1.2% from a year ago — the greatest share gain in the industry, tied with GM.
General Motors was about 5,000 units behind with 48,201 vehicles sold (-12.8%), bumping its market share up an equal 1.2 % to 14.6%.
FCA was another 4,000 back, selling 44,140 vehicles (-18.8%), for a 13.4% share — a gain of 0.2%
Toyota maintained its familiar fourth-place ranking with 34,963 vehicles sold (-18.6%), improving its market share by 0.2% to 10.6%.
Honda’s 26,541 sales (-31.2%) kept it securely in fifth place, despite its above-average sales decline, but it did give up 1.3% of market share, to 8.1%, the second-largest share decline in the industry.
Hyundai and Kia gain share
Hyundai continued to outpace the market average with 20,630 sales (-15.0%), increasing market share by 0.4% to 6.3% — a share gain bested only by Ford and GM.
Nissan’s sales woes continued with 18,228 sales, a 36.4% decline that was the greatest in percentage terms of any mainstream brand. Its corresponding 1.5% loss of market share, to 5.5%, was the greatest of any brand.
Kia, in eighth-place for the quarter, outperformed the market with 12,594 vehicles sold (-15.2%), boosting market share by 0.2% to 3.8%.
Mazda, in ninth, sold 11,237 new vehicles (-18.7%), slightly outperforming the market and keeping its share steady at 3.4%.
Volkswagen filled out the top 10 with 11,064 sales (-20.4%) also holding a stable 3.4% market share.
Subaru, in 11th, sold 9,595 vehicles (-12.7%), bumping its market share by 0.2% to 2.9%.
Mercedes-Benz continued to lead the luxury brands, in 12th place overall, with 7,963 sales (-22.2%), up 0.1% to 2.4 %.
It should be noted that the sales figures reported here are reconciled quarterly by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC) based on sales reported by manufacturers.
