Given that the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic had already slashed new-vehicle sales in Canada by 20.0% in the first quarter of 2020, and the fact that April and May sales declines were dramatically worse, it’s no surprise that cumulative Q2 sales of 315,391 units were down 44.5% from the same period a year ago.
What may be surprising is that there is hope, even encouragement, in that figure.
Why? Because sales of 155,439 units in June, as estimated by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC), were down just 16.2% from year-ago figures for the same month, a significant improvement from estimated decreases of 74.6% and 44.0% for April and May respectively.
If that trend of improvement were to continue apace, it is conceivable that normal sales levels could return as early as July.
That’s a very big “if,” however. As Dennis DesRosiers of DAC observed: “plenty of uncertainty remains for the months to come. The extent of pent-up demand that exists in the market is uncertain.”
Even though June’s sales decline represented a big improvement from the three prior months, the SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate) for the month was still below 1.6-million units, according to DAC.
“Moreover,” DesRosiers cautions, “with virus case counts climbing once again in the USA, Canada’s economic and public health recovery stands on an unsteady pillar.” He adds that, “for the time being, however, the overall trend in new light vehicle sales is positive.”
Even an immediate return to pre-COVID sales levels, of course, won’t undo the harm that has already been done. Cumulative first-half sales of 644,499 units were down 34.2% from 2019. All of which suggests that DAC’s earlier forecast of a “baseline” decline of 25-30% in sales for the full year may not be far off.
Cars continue to bear the brunt
As has become the norm, passenger cars were much more affected by the pandemic downturn in Q2 than the pickups, vans and utility vehicles — especially crossovers —that we collectively call light trucks.
Sales of 248,015 light trucks in the quarter were down 39.7% from a year go but, with just 67,376 units sold, passenger car sales were down by 57.1% for the period. In terms of market share for the year-to-date, light trucks claimed 78.9% of all sales, leaving passenger cars just 21.1% of the market — a 5.7% shift from the same period in 2019.
Tight race at the top
Ford hung on to its top sales ranking in the diminished market of Q2, but by a very narrow margin, edging out General Motors by fewer than 500 units. Ford sold 50,503 new vehicles, a decline of 44.8%, bringing its first-half total to 105,232 units, down 32.2% from a year ago. In a market that was down even more, however, the Blue Oval’s first-half market share increased by 0.5% to 16.2%.
By comparison, GM’s 50,074 Q2 sales were down just 35.5%, significantly beating the -44.5% market average. As a result, GMs total of 98,275 sales in H1 were off by only 26.1% – third-best in the industry on a percentage-loss basis — and its market share improved by 1.6%, to 15.2%, the greatest share gain of any automaker.
FCA barely maintained third place in the Q2 sales rankings with 33,718 units sold, down 46.8% from a year ago. Year-to date sales of 77,858 units were down 33.9%, which was enough to improve market share by 0.1% to 12.1%.
Toyota was just 305 units behind FCA with 34,413 vehicles sold in Q2, a decline of 48.7%. The resultant first-half total of 68,376 sales was off by 36.7% from a year ago, cutting market share by 0.4% to 10.6%.
Honda’s 26,513 sales, down by 45.6% kept it securely in fifth place for the quarter, as did its 53,054 total for the half, down 39.2%. As a result, however, Honda’s market share at mid-year was down by 0.7%, to 8.2%, the second-greatest share decline in the industry.
Kia and Hyundai stay strong
Hyundai continued to gain share within the diminished second-quarter market, selling 23,010 vehicles (-43.4%). Total H1 sales of 43,640 units were down just 32.8% from a year ago, increasing market share by 0.2% to 6.8%.
Nissan narrowly outpaced Kia to maintain its sixth-place ranking with 16,303 Q2 sales, a 56.3% decline surpassed in percentage terms only by its Infiniti sibling among active brands. Year-to-date sales of 34,531 vehicles (-47.6%) resulted in a 1.3% loss of market share, to 5.4%, which was the greatest of any brand.
Kia fell just short of taking seventh-place from Nissan with 16,249 vehicles sold in the quarter — a 24.6% decline, which was the best year-over-year performance of any brand for the period. Ditto for its 28,843 first-half sales (-24.6%), resulting in a 0.6% share gain, to 4.5% — second-best only to GM.
Mazda, in ninth place, also outperformed the market average by selling 11,344 new vehicles in Q2 (-39.4%). As a result, the Japanese brand’s cumulative 22,581 first-half sales (-30.6%), pushed its market share up 0.2% to 3.5%.
Volkswagen maintained its tenth-place ranking with 9,784 sales (-48.5%), resulting in an H1 total of 20,848 units sold (-36.6%) and a 0.2% loss of market share, to 3.2%.
Subaru maintained 11th place with 8,557 vehicles sold (-33.8%) in Q2 and 18,152 in H1, holding its market share steady at 2.8%.
Mercedes-Benz maintained its usual 12th-place position overall, as well as its luxury-brand sales leadership, with 6,868 sales (-41.3%) in Q2, 14,831 in H1 (-32.4%) and a 0.1% share increase to 2.3%.
Winners and losers
It is fair to say that the entire industry was a loser in Q2 2020, with overall sales off by 44.5%. Still, there were significant deviations from that average among the various players so there were winners and losers on a relative basis within that overall context.
From that perspective, the “winners” for Q1 were Kia (-30.6%), GM (-35.5%), Mazda (-39.4%), Land Rover (-39.8%), and Maserati (-39.9%).
The greatest “losers” among active brands were Infiniti (-71.1%), Mitsubishi (-58.0%), Nissan (-56.3%), Jaguar (-55.1%), and Genesis (-53.2%).
It should be noted that the sales figures reported here are reconciled quarterly by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC) based on sales reported by manufacturers.
