After bottoming out in April, due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, new-vehicle sales bounced back quickly to within 5% of previous-year figures by July and they’ve continued at or above that level, on average, since then. Until November!
Sales of 128,351 new units in November, as estimated by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC), were down by 10.4% from the same month in 2019. And the SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate), which had been consistently above 1.8-million since July, fell to below 1.7-million for the month.
As a result, estimated year-to-date sales of 1,429,472 vehicles, with just one month left to go in 2020, continue to be down more than 20% (estimated 20.8%) from the same period last year.
The November decline seems to have been driven, at least in part, by restrictions and lockdowns resulting from the COVID-19 second wave, which is sweeping across the country. “It was always apparent that the recovery in the market was never going to be a straight line,” said Andrew King, Managing Partner of DAC.
“Consumer confidence has also been stalling over the past two months with rising COVID-19 cases,” said Rebekah Young of Scotiabank Economics. “Inventory shortages and fewer purchase incentives may also be creating some headwinds to sales as the end of the year approaches.”
“With only December remaining, the overall market is pretty much locked in to an approximate 20% decline for the year and a sales level slightly exceeding 1.5-million units,” said King, adding that “We expect sales to remain depressed in December.”
Scotiabank revised its earlier full-year forecast of 1.6-million down to around 1.56-million units.
If December should repeat November’s 10% shortfall, we can expect a final total of about 1.53-million.
As for 2021, Scotiabank expects some purchase activity to be pushed out into the new year and foresees a healthy rebound to 1.8-million units for the year, albeit with some early-year headwinds until the second-wave effects are past.
Positive results from most reporting brands
While the majority of automakers continue to report detailed sales results only quarterly, those that did reveal November figures experienced mostly positive results.
Genesis, which lagged the market in October, led the field in November in percentage terms, with 143 sales, a 36.2% improvement from 2019. Year-to-date, Genesis sales of 1,041 units are down by 26.1%, however, still below the market average.
Volvo continued its steady progress with 1,004 November sales, a gain of 13.1% from a year ago. Cumulative sales of 8,213 units to date were down just 10.7%, well ahead of the market average.
Kia, too, continued to make gains with 6,220 sales in the month, an increase of 8.1%. Year-to date sales of 67,613 units were down by just 6.3% — the best result of any brand reporting.
Subaru, had yet another best-ever-for-the-month result in November, with 5,552 vehicles sold, an improvement of 7.5% from 2019. Year-to-date sales were down just 10.0%.
Mazda sold 5,574 new vehicles in November, up by 5.0% from a year ago, while its year-to-date sales of 53,622 units also beat the market average, off by just 14.6%.
While Hyundai’s 9,635 November sales were down 8.9% from the same month last year, they still outperformed the market average. So did its year-to-date sales of 104,713 units, down by 16.5% from the same period in 2019.
Toyota Canada reported 15,878 combined Toyota and Lexus sales in November, without breaking down the product split — a decline of 16.8% compared to the same period last year.
A complete breakdown of sales for all manufacturers will be reported for Q4 and for the full year after December.
