Sales of 110,448 new vehicles in Canada in November, as estimated by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC), were down 13.9% from the same month last year and 23.9% from November 2019, which was the last pre-pandemic year for comparison.
As a result of strong sales earlier this year, estimated year-to-date sales of 1,535,479 vehicles through November continued to surpass last year’s levels. They were up by 7.9% for the period, but remained 14.9% below the more normal 2019 levels.
While the November sales decline from 2020 was less than that in the previous two months, in percentage terms, the drop in SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate) was more concerning. It fell to just 1.45-million—the lowest level since the initial three-month period of lockdowns in Spring 2020, according to DAC.
Performance of individual brands was again “all over the map” as the microchip shortage hit certain products while sparing others, observed Andrew King, Managing Partner of DAC. While some manufacturers achieved double digit-gains, others experienced double-digit losses—a pattern that is likely to persist until stability returns to the semiconductor supply chain, said King.
“A recovery in North American production in November offers measured hope that output will continue to improve into next year, but a host of headwinds will likely slow the pace,” said Rebekah Young of Scotiabank Economics. “As Canada competes for limited inventory, days supply continues to edge lower across Canada, clearly constraining sales in an otherwise robust demand environment.”
For those reasons, Scotiabank is maintaining its 2021 sales forecast at 1.67-million units, while trimming its 2022 forecast by 30,000 units to 1.77-million and holding its 2023 forecast at 1.93 million.
There is still a lot of uncertainty in this outlook, Young noted, including factors such as the pace of auto production recovery, the emergence of the Omicron variant, ongoing global supply chain disruptions, and recent weather events within Canada.
It’s a tough time to make forecasts!
Winners and losers
Given the ongoing disparities in monthly sales among manufacturers, relative to their traditional performance, year-to-date sales may be a more relevant overall measure of an automaker’s performance—particularly when compared to pre-pandemic 2019 figures.
On that basis, of those few automakers reporting November results, Genesis again achieved the greatest percentage gains for the year-to-date (YTD), up 197.5% from 2019 and 305.2% from 2020.
Volvo came next with sales up 12.6% from 2019 and 26.1% from 2020, while Lexus was the only other reporting brand with a positive result, up 3.0% from 2019.
While Mazda experienced a big November decline (-46.6%), its YTD sales were down just 4.0% from 2019 and up 12.4% over 2020.
Hyundai’s YTD sales were down by 4.7% relative to 2019 but up 14.1% from 2020, while Toyota’s were down 5.7% from 2019.
Acura’s results were down 14.5% from 2019 but up 15.4% from 2020, while Honda’s numbers fell by 24.0% from 2019, although they remained 3.3% ahead of their 2020 level.
Given that many automakers continue to report sales only quarterly rather than monthly, a complete breakdown of results by manufacturer will be available at year-end.
