Hopes for a dramatic resurgence of auto sales in Canada with the new year will remain unrealized for a while yet, as supply-side issues continue to constrain vehicle production for most manufacturers.
Canadian sales of 91,411 new vehicles in January, as estimated by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC), were up a paltry 0.6% from the same month last year and they were down 16.6% from January 2020, which was the last comparative pre-pandemic month.
“January is usually the lowest sales month of the year and has limited impact on overall annual sales but it is clear that, at least for now, the discrepancy between market demand and market supply persists,” Andrew King, Managing Partner of DAC observed.
On a positive note, the January SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate) of 1.66 million represented a second consecutive month of improvement from 2021’s November nadir, and the highest level since last July.
While it is still too early to make hard predictions about annual sales, it is clear that demand continues to outstrip supply. Rebekah Young of Scotiabank Economics expects sales to continue strengthening as inventory improves, with a tentative forecast of 1.75-million sales for the year — albeit with considerable uncertainty.
Winners and losers
As was the case throughout 2021, January sales numbers for any manufacturer are more likely a reflection of product availability than market demand alone.
Of those few automakers reporting January results, Hyundai and Subaru scored the greatest percentage gains from a year ago, up 26.9% and 24.8% respectively.
Not far behind, Genesis sales were up by 18.0% and Kia by 17.8% from 2020. Also showing gains were Acura (+11.3%), Honda (+9.6%), Volvo (+6.7%) and Lexus (+2.4%).
On the negative side of the ledger, Toyota’s January sales were down 3.4% from 2020 and Mazda’s were down by 13.5%.
Given that many automakers continue to report sales only quarterly rather than monthly, a complete breakdown of results by manufacturer will be available after the first quarter.
