March of 2021 was the strongest month of the last year for auto sales in Canada, but given the combined impact of ongoing pandemic-related issues and supply-side constraints, the trend has been downhill ever since.
Sales of 140,460 new vehicles in March of 2022, as estimated by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC), were down 19.8% from that year-ago peak, and cumulative first-quarter (Q1) sales of 330,593 units were down by 12.7% from last year. In fact, they were within just a few-hundred units of Q1, 2020, when March sales were decimated by the onset of COVID-19, and 20% below 2019’s pre-pandemic level.
March 2022’s SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate) was about 1.55-million, according to DAC, compared to full-year sales of 1.64-million in 2021. Only two other months have fared as poorly since May of 2020.
Supply, not demand, remains the major issue. According to Rebekah Young of Scotiabank Economics, supply constraints over the course of 2022 are expected to keep sales below the fundamental demand level, which should otherwise be back to or above pre-pandemic levels.
While some progress has been made with respect to the ongoing semiconductor shortage, the war in Ukraine has caused further component shortages, particularly for European manufacturers.
All of which means we should expect more of the same, at least in the near term, but all predictions are precarious. Young is maintaining a forecast of 1.75-million sales for the full year but notes that recent geopolitical developments likely erode some of the pent-up demand and add more potential downside, particularly with respect to supply constraints.
Light truck sales gain further share
While sales of 278,871 “light trucks” (pickups, vans and utility vehicles, including crossovers) in Q1 were down 11.9% from a year ago; they accounted for an all-time-high 84.4% of the market—an increase of 0.8% in market share.
Passenger car sales of 51,722 units were down 17.0% from Q1 202, claiming just 15.6% of the market, which is a further 0.8% loss of market share.
GM back on top, Hyundai moves up
While Ford once again claimed the annual sales crown for 2021, General Motors ranked number one in Q1 2022, in spite of a 23.7% sales decline, to 47,699 units. In the process, GM gave up 2.1% of market share, which fell to 14.4%.
Ford’s 43,061 Q1 sales, which were down 20.5% from a year ago, kept it in second position with a 1.3% share decline to 13.0%.
FCA Canada (Stellantis) was in its traditional third place, barely behind Ford, with 42,587 vehicles sold, down just 7.6% from 2021. As a result, FCA was the only one of the Detroit Three to improve market share—by 0.7% to 12.9%.
Toyota maintained its fourth-place ranking with 35,523 sales (40,618 as a group with Lexus included), a decline of 15.1% from a year ago, resulting in a 0.3% loss of market share to 10.7%.
Hyundai, having threatened for several months, finally overtook Honda for P5, with 27,559 vehicles sold in Q1, an increase of 7.5% from last year. That gain bumped the Korean brand’s market share up 0.5% to 8.1%. (Note that, as a group, Hyundai, Kia and Genesis combined sales of 42,406 units would surpass Toyota and Lexus as a group, for fourth place overall.)
More shuffling in the ranks
Honda’s 21,817 Q1 sales (25,199 as a group including Acura) fell by 18.1% from 2021, relegating it to sixth place in the rankings and costing it 0.4% of market share, which fell to 6.6%.
Nissan, in seventh place, closely matched the market average with a 12.9% sales decline from a year ago to 20,540 units (22,010 as a group including Infiniti), maintaining its 6.2% market share.
Kia ranked eighth with 14,847 sales, down just 5.8% from 2021, resulting in a share gain of 0.3% to 4.5%.
Mazda held ninth place with 12,919 sales, a decline of 14.1% that cut market share by 0.1% to 3.9%.
Subaru continued to gain ground, surpassing Volkswagen for 10th place with Q1 sales of 10,704 units, down just 4.9%, resulting in a 0.2% share increase to 3.2%.
Volkswagen slipped back to 11th in the process (as a group including Audi and Porsche it would rank eighth) with 9,398 sales, down 19.8% from last year. As a result, VW’s market share fell by 0.3% to 2.8%.
Mercedes-Benz held its 12th-place ranking and luxury-brand sales leadership with 7,934 vehicles sold, a 13.1% decline that also maintained its 2.4% market share.
Winners and losers
Given the widespread supply-side constraints and their effects on production, sales numbers for any manufacturer are more likely a reflection of product availability than market demand alone.
With that caveat in mind, Genesis led the pack in terms of the greatest percentage gain, up 38.1% from a year ago, followed closely by Mitsubishi with a gain of 37.1%.
Other brands that surpassed last year’s Q1 sales in absolute numbers included: Porsche (+28.6%); Maserati (+9.7%); Hyundai (+7.5%); Mini (+6.0%); Lexus (+5.7%); Audi (+4.8%); and Volvo (+2.6%).
On the negative side of the ledger, Jaguar realized the greatest decline (-61.2%), followed by Land Rover (-52.1%), General Motors (-23.7%), Ford (-20.5%) and Honda (-18.1%).
Given that many automakers continue to report sales only quarterly rather than monthly, the next complete breakdown of results by manufacturer will be available after the second quarter.
